Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
